Two Dangerous Assumptions in U.S. Defense Planning and How to Fix Them

Decades of dominance leaves a mark: It shapes the beliefs and behaviors of a nation and its military. Extended periods of hegemony for a nation, like long-standing market dominance for a business, encourages blind spots for changing markets, technologies, and competitors. Sustained success breeds complacency born of self-satisfaction. Under-examined strategy and policy assumptions are a particular concern for businesses and governments as a longstanding status quo becomes dogmatically locked in as received wisdom.U.S. defense planning suffers from two under-examined assumptions. The first is that U.S. military force posture, capabilities, and capacities will be sufficient to seamlessly transition from deterrence to

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