The Strategic Consequences of Deferred Maintenance: Challenges to the Resilience of U.S. Sea Power

Abstract

The U.S. Sea Services – comprising the Navy, Coast Guard, and Military Sealift Command – face a mounting crisis born of decades of deferred maintenance, shrinking fleet size, and aging infrastructure. As great power competition with China and Russia intensifies these systemic issues have eroded America’s maritime dominance and compromised its ability to project power, sustain readiness, and respond rapidly to global contingencies.

This article argues that maintenance shortfalls are not merely logistical hurdles but represent a strategic vulnerability with far-reaching consequences. Drawing on data from the Government Accountability Office and defense assessments, it details how prolonged neglect has diminished naval capacity and capability, resulting in a force increasingly ill-suited to 21st-century threats. While past reform efforts have fallen short, the article contends that bold, immediate action to overhaul maintenance planning and investment in shipyard infrastructure is essential. Without decisive intervention, the U.S. risks ceding maritime advantage to adversaries prepared to exploit its inertia.

Introduction

The U.S. Sea Services are on the brink of a precipice. Years of ship maintenance neglect, complacency due to ship degradation, and an inability to keep up with a quickly changing global landscape have left the Navy, Coast Guard, and Military Sealift Command ill-prepared for the reality of 21st-century great power competition. It is common knowledge that military spending fluctuates with geopolitical and economic factors, often leading to deferred maintenance when funds are tight, or priorities shift. For the U.S. Sea Services, these maintenance delays directly impact readiness, increase long-term maintenance costs, and limit operational capabilities and capacities. Deferred maintenance erodes the foundation of America’s maritime dominance.

The era of global hegemony, when the U.S. could afford to drag its feet on maintaining ships, is over. China and Russia are actively advancing their strategic objectives, showing no inclination to wait for the United States to resolve its internal challenges and enhance its readiness. As great power competition intensifies, consistent and strategic planning is crucial to ensure the U.S. military remains prepared, regardless of budgetary changes. This article will show how the deferred maintenance crisis hinders our ability to project power and advocate for the steps the U.S. must take to avert a potential catastrophe.

Operational Consequences: Ships in Port

Ships are the backbone of America’s global military presence—emphasizing the strategic importance of naval forces to U.S. defense and international presence. The Navy’s fleet is central to maintaining maritime security, ensuring freedom of navigation, and projecting power globally. The U.S. Sea Services operate in critical regions like the South China Sea, the Red Sea, and the Arctic to counter potential adversaries such as China and Russia, safeguarding international trade routes and responding to global threats.

Deferred maintenance is evident across the Navy, Coast Guard, and Military Sealift Command (MSC), resulting in critical assets being tied up in drydocks or awaiting long-overdue repairs. For example, the Navy faces significant challenges due to a shortage of certified dry docks, particularly on the West Coast, where only four dry docks serve 45 surface ships, creating a bottleneck that delays routine maintenance and modernization efforts. This shortfall is further compounded by backlogs and unexpected growth in maintenance work beyond the planned scope, which results in a domino effect for subsequent vessels waiting for their turn​.

The Coast Guard faces similar challenges, with older vessels, such as its Polar-class icebreakers, suffering from deferred maintenance and aging equipment that limits their operational capabilities in the Arctic. The MSC, responsible for prepositioning ships, also deals with maintenance deficiencies. These issues include inadequate preventative maintenance plans and poor contractor oversight, which have led to unplanned repair costs and extended dry dock periods, impeding the readiness of vital logistics and support vessels.

U.S. aircraft carriers, the linchpins of U.S. maritime superiority, are a prime example. Due to maintenance delays, multiple carriers have been unavailable at crucial moments, severely limiting our ability to respond to crises. For example, USS George Washington (CVN 73) was in port undergoing repairs due to extensive maintenance needs. It could not support operations during heightened tensions in the Indo-Pacific region​. Another example is the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77), which faced a maintenance availability period extending over 20 months—longer than planned—due to delays and challenges at Norfolk Shipyard. These maintenance issues have severely impacted the Navy’s ability to deploy carriers when needed, leaving the East Coast with fewer operational carriers available for crisis response.

In an era when China is churning out ships at an unprecedented rate—boasting a fleet of approximately 400 battle force ships compared to the U.S. Navy’s around 300 operational ships—can we afford to have multi-billion-dollar platforms sitting idle in dry dock? The answer is obvious, yet our repair and maintenance continue at a pace that fails to respond to the urgency or consequence of letting the U.S. fleet rust away. At the same time, military budgets and funding see constraints year after year.

Decades of Decline Readiness

Over the past 30 years, the Department of Defense (DoD) has seen a consistent decline in the operational readiness of its naval fleet. The U.S. Navy’s fleet size decreased from over 500 ships in the early 1990s to around 290. The reduction, combined with extended deployments and deferred maintenance, has significantly strained fleet readiness, making it increasingly difficult to maintain operational capabilities.

Reports by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and other defense analyses highlight that maintenance backlogs, personnel shortages, and inadequate shipyard capacity have contributed to this issue. For example, the GAO noted that the Navy faces challenges completing necessary maintenance due to limited drydock availability and outdated infrastructure. Furthermore, a 2010 report identified a “tipping point” in fleet readiness, indicating that current strategies were unsustainable given the shrinking fleet size and the high operational tempo​.

To address these problems, various initiatives, such as the Optimized Fleet Response Plan (OFRP), have been introduced. However, these measures have not fully resolved longstanding issues, leading to a continued decline in readiness over the past several decades.

Impacts on the Navy’s readiness are closely tied to its operational capacity and capabilities, both of which have declined for decades. The reduction in fleet size from over 500 ships to around 290 has led to significant strain, limiting the Navy’s ability to meet global demands while maintaining adequate training and repair schedules​. Capacity shortfalls are compounded by aging vessels and insufficient shipyard infrastructure, resulting in a backlog of maintenance projects and delays in returning ships to operational status​. These challenges diminish the Navy’s capabilities, reducing the availability of combat-ready vessels needed to respond quickly to conflicts or crises. The widening gap between available capacity reducing and operational requirements increasing stresses the urgent need for strategic investment in shipbuilding and repair facilities to restore and sustain naval readiness​. As capacity declines, so too does capability—fewer ships and constrained infrastructure directly limit the Navy’s ability to project power, sustain forward presence, and respond effectively to emergent threats.

Deferred Maintenance and U.S. Maritime Superiority

The Reality of Deferred Maintenance

Deferred maintenance refers to postponing essential upkeep, repairs, and upgrades due to budget constraints or competing priorities. For this article, it is defined as the accumulated backlog of necessary maintenance activities that have been delayed, resulting in deteriorating conditions that can impair performance and safety over time. In the context of the DoD, deferred maintenance affects operational readiness as critical infrastructure, ships, and aircraft suffer from prolonged delays in maintenance, making them less effective or even inoperable during critical times​.

Deferred maintenance isn’t just a budgetary oversight; it’s a risky business, especially for an organization like the DoD, which manages risk. For years, the U.S. Sea Services have been operating their ships, submarines, and aircraft to the point of degradation while continuously deferring critical maintenance and modernization efforts. What we’re left with is a fleet of aging, worn-out platforms that are more likely to break down than project power. Deferred maintenance is evident throughout numerous reports of breaking ships​, and non-repairable ships due to prolonged deferred maintenance. The GAO has highlighted that many ships face extended maintenance delays due to these limitations, which results in a significant portion of the fleet being unavailable for operations at any given time​. Additionally, shortages in skilled personnel further exacerbate repair timelines, reducing fleet readiness and increasing the operational strain on the remaining functional ships​. Maintenance is no longer something we can defer—it is a crisis, and the situation worsens every day we delay addressing it.

While other military assets—such as airpower and long-range strike capabilities—can offset some shortfalls, they cannot replicate the full range of missions that maritime forces are uniquely positioned to perform. Naval forces provide a persistent presence, sea-based deterrence, and the ability to project power without dependence on foreign bases. They enable operations such as amphibious landings, control of critical sea lanes, and crisis response in areas where access may be limited or contested. These functions cannot be outsourced to other domains without compromising operational flexibility and strategic reach. Relying on alternatives may temporarily mask the effects of deferred maintenance, but it does not resolve the underlying degradation of maritime readiness. A capable fleet remains essential to sustaining U.S. influence, meeting alliance commitments, and responding effectively to emerging threats.

Strategic Implications and The Indo-Pacific

Deferred maintenance is not merely an inconvenience but a significant threat to national security. The ability of the Sea Services to be operationally ready within days is intrinsically tied to the nation’s security​. U.S. maritime dominance is precariously maintained in the Indo-Pacific, where China has aggressively expanded its influence, building a formidable navy. China’s shipbuilding efforts have outpaced those of the U.S., making it the largest Navy in the world, with a projected fleet of 395 battleforce ships by 2025, increasing to 435 by 2030. In contrast, the U.S. Navy is expected to see a decrease in its fleet size, with projections indicating just 294 battleforce ships by the end of the fiscal year 2030​.

Over the past decade, Chinese naval presence in the Indo-Pacific has surged, with a significant increase in maritime vessels and a greater assertiveness in regional disputes, thereby complicating U.S. operations and alliances​. For example, China has undertaken humanitarian aid missions while expanding its naval bases in the South China Sea, effectively increasing its foothold in these strategic waters​. Meanwhile, the U.S. has relied heavily on humanitarian efforts such as the Pacific Partnership, which provide vital support to regional nations but are a stark reminder of our constrained capabilities. ​With a growing maintenance backlog, the U.S. faces the untenable decision of sending under-maintained ships into contested waters, risking mission failure or allowing China to fill the strategic void left by a weakened U.S. presence.

Every delay in maintenance gives China a strategic advantage because it allows it to project power more effectively while the U.S. struggles to keep its existing fleet operational. The data unequivocally demonstrates that China’s accelerated naval expansion has placed the United States at a strategic disadvantage​. The implications of these developments are profound. If the U.S. Sea Services continue to neglect maintenance, they risk becoming outmatched and outmaneuvered in strategic theaters​. The necessity of addressing these gaps cannot be overstated; failure to adapt and modernize will seriously affect U.S. national security in the face of rising competition from China and Russia.

A Path Forward

Modernizing Maintenance Processes: A Matter of National Survival

The answer to deferred maintenance is simple: we must fix what’s broken and do it now. There’s no time for the usual Pentagon bureaucracy or drawn-out budgetary debates. Modernizing maintenance and procurement processes should be treated with the same urgency as war planning. A report titled “Actions Needed to Address Cost and Schedule Estimates for Shipyard Improvement” by the GAO has highlighted significant challenges in fleet maintenance and readiness, indicating that a substantial portion of the fleet is not operational due to being in dry dock for repairs or upgrades. Specifically, recent assessments show that nearly half of the U.S. Navy’s ships are unavailable for deployment at any given time, primarily due to maintenance issues​. This situation compromises the Navy’s ability to project power and respond to global threats effectively, mainly because naval presence is crucial for maintaining stability and countering potential adversaries​.

Public-private partnerships with shipyards can significantly enhance maintenance capacity for the U.S. Navy, accelerating repairs and reducing costs. Such collaborations leverage private sector efficiencies and innovations, which are crucial given the current maintenance backlogs. For instance, initiatives like the Naval Sustainment System have successfully improved maintenance productivity by incorporating external business practices, notably reducing workload carryover and improving on-time completion rates for maintenance work​.

Furthermore, adopting advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and predictive analytics can revolutionize the Navy’s approach to maintenance. By utilizing AI to analyze inspection data and identify potential issues before they escalate, the Navy can shift from reactive to preventive maintenance strategies. Recent projects, including collaborations with tech companies like Google Cloud, aim to automate inspections, thereby increasing accuracy and efficiency while reducing risks related to manual inspections​.

Investing in these innovative solutions is not merely about financial expenditure; it’s a matter of national security. The U.S. must ensure its naval assets are fully operational and ready for deployment as the global military landscape becomes increasingly competitive, particularly with rising challenges from China and Russia. The time has come to prioritize these partnerships and technologies to maintain maritime superiority and safeguard national interests.

Leveraging Technology: The Future of Warfare

As much as deferred maintenance threatens current readiness, the future demands that we invest in new technologies to fill the gaps. Unmanned systems, drones, and autonomous ships can alleviate some of the strain on our overworked fleet and personnel. For example, the U.S. Navy has invested in the Sea Hunter, an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) designed for long-duration missions. This vessel can operate independently, providing valuable reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities without risking human lives​. Moreover, drones such as the MQ-8 Fire Scout and the MQ-25 Stingray are being integrated into naval operations to enhance situational awareness and logistics support. ​ These technologies require less maintenance, reduce risk to human operators, and offer strategic flexibility that traditional platforms cannot provide.

Adopting these innovations is not just a bonus—it’s a necessity. The increasing complexity of modern warfare, especially in contested areas like the Indo-Pacific, underscores the importance of these advancements. The U.S. Navy faces significant threats from adversaries such as China, which is rapidly expanding its naval fleet and capabilities. For instance, China’s Type 055 destroyer and large numbers of unmanned systems present a challenge that the U.S. must address to maintain its maritime superiority.

The future battlefield will not wait for the U.S. Navy to play catch-up. To supplement its aging fleet, the Navy must prioritize developing and fielding USVs, autonomous submarines, and drone swarms—all uncrewed vessels used to collect data. These systems can enhance maritime surveillance, extend operational reach, and conduct missions in highly contested environments where traditional human-crewed ships are too vulnerable or stretched too thin. For instance, drone swarms have proven effective in recent military exercises, demonstrating the capability to overwhelm enemy defenses through coordinated attacks. Additionally, integrating autonomous submarines can allow for covert operations and intelligence-gathering missions in areas too risky for human-crewed vessels.

Considering these developments, the U.S. Navy’s strategic priorities must shift towards embracing these technologies as essential components of future operations—failure to do so risks leaving the U.S. at a significant disadvantage in a rapidly evolving security environment. Investing in uncrewed systems is not merely about enhancing capabilities but ensuring the Navy is prepared for the challenges in a dynamic and increasingly hostile maritime landscape​.

Conclusion

The Sea Services are at a crossroads. Deferred maintenance is not just a problem to be solved in the abstract—it is an existential threat to America’s ability to project power, maintain global stability, and deter aggression from China and Russia. The warnings are clear, the stakes are high, and the time for action is now.

If we ignore these critical challenges, we will wake up one day to find that our once-dominant fleet can no longer defend U.S. interests. That day is fast approaching; only decisive, bold action can prevent it. Sea Services must overhaul its maintenance approach before it’s too late.

The world isn’t waiting for the U.S. to catch up, and our adversaries are already moving to exploit our weaknesses. The question is simple: will we rise to the challenge or fall behind?

The choice is ours—and if action is not taken, the consequences will echo for generations.

(Disclaimer: The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement)

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