PredictIt wins approval to be full prediction market under CFTC

PredictIt is set to relaunch in the United States as a fully fledged and approved political prediction platform after Aristotle confirmed that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has approved its applications. 

The company that services PredictIt has received the green light to operate as both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), heralding a new dawn for the platform.

A brand new PredictIt exchange will emerge, with the latest prediction markets offering for United States-based users expected to open for trading next month.

“We thank the CFTC staff and Acting Chair Pham for their diligence in reviewing and approving our applications, stated John Aristotle Phillips, CEO of Aristotle. 

“With more than a decade of experience operating PredictIt, we’re excited to bring that knowledge and community to a fully regulated marketplace.”

As part of the operator’s DCO approval, its trusted clearing framework is expected to open up new opportunities and attractions for traders, as intimated by the CEO. 

“Prediction markets help people understand the future, and this approval allows us to deliver the most robust and transparent version of that vision yet,” he added.

OG political predictions market, @predictit (& Aristotle), just got CFTC approval to launch a regulated exchange, after years of litigation. https://t.co/3aBCq2ECpe

— Lydia Beyoud (@ElleBeyoud) September 5, 2025

Settlement of PredictIt and CFTC long-time dispute

PredictIt first emerged in 2014 as an online political prediction market, operated by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. 

As with other prediction markets such as Polymarket, which recently added Donald Trump Jnr. to its advisory board, the premise is that users can trade contracts on political outcomes (elections, legislative votes, or policy decisions), effectively functioning as a betting platform where prices reflect user-driven probabilities. 

A breakthrough was reached in June this year, when PredictIt and the CFTC settled their years-long lawsuit through a joint status update filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas. 

That was a clear indication of the direction of travel for prediction market operators, under the present Trump administration, following years of legal wrangles with the CFTC and threats of enforcement actions from the regulator. 

Image credit: PredictIt

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