Not theft. Not disruption. Sometimes cyber activity is just quiet observation

Not theft. Not disruption. Sometimes cyber activity is just quiet observation, by Jack Evans, Australian Strategic Policy Institute

This latest article from ASPI argues that analysts often misread PRC-linked cyber intrusions by treating espionage and sabotage as the only goals. Instead, Evans contends that persistent, low-impact access often provides “uncertainty reduction,” giving Beijing real-time visibility into how targeted systems and organizations actually operate.

Not all cyber operations are designed to steal data or break systems. Many are designed to observe them. Persistent, low-impact access offers something strategically valuable: real-time visibility into how systems actually function, rather than how they are supposed to function on paper…Disruption is not required for this access to be useful. In many cases, disruption would undermine the objective. For states that prioritize long-term planning, uncertainty reduction becomes an end in itself.

He uses PRC cyber activity tied to resource extraction in Africa to show how long dwell times and minimal disruption to networks enable continuous observation in an otherwise noisy environment. He concludes that governments should update cyber risk models to ask what understanding an adversary gains from access and how that insight can shape bargaining leverage and future strategic choices.

Matthew Turner’s latest SWJ Article, “Violent Non-State Actors and Generative AI in Warfare: The RSF and the Sudanese Civil War,” argues that actors use emerging technologies to shape perception, reduce uncertainty, and influence strategic outcomes long before decisive action on the battlefield. Like Evans’ essay, Turner shows that persistent informational access and manipulation function as strategic positioning tools that alter judgment, bargaining power, and escalation dynamics. Both pieces contend that the most consequential activity often unfolds quietly, through observation and influence that reshape the environment before any visible disruption occurs.

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