Middle East Crisis: The Next Phase of Israel’s War on Hamas May Shift Focus to Hezbollah

Mr. Netanyahu stopped well short of announcing an invasion of Lebanon, a move that would likely would result in heavy Israeli and Lebanese losses, and instead left open the door for a diplomatic resolution to the fight with Hezbollah.

He also dismissed suggestions that a cease-fire in Gaza is close. Negotiations remain stuck because Hamas seeks a permanent truce while Israel wants only a temporary one, and Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition would likely collapse if Israel stopped fighting in Gaza without removing Hamas from power.

Still, the prime minister appeared to be signaling that Israel, after finishing its current military operation in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, will not seek to mount major ground invasions of cities in central Gaza, the only area of the territory where the Israeli military has not carried out such attacks.

While Israeli leaders have said since January that they have been transitioning to a lower intensity war, the end of the Rafah operation would allow for the completion of that process, months after it began.

The remarks from Mr. Netanyahu, and recent comments by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, indicated that the focus of Israel’s political discourse and strategic planning is shifting to its northern border with Lebanon.

In a statement on Monday, Mr. Gallant’s office said that he had discussed with U.S. officials “the transition to ‘Phase C’ in Gaza and its impact on the region, including vis-à-vis Lebanon and other areas.”

Since October, Israel has been fighting a low-level conflict with Hezbollah, a Hamas ally, that has displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border. But the fighting has been overshadowed by the larger war in Gaza.

Now, the shift in rhetoric over the weekend could be the harbinger of a major escalation between Hezbollah and Israel.

Israeli officials have been warning for months that they may invade Lebanon if Hezbollah, a powerful Iranian-backed militia that dominates southern Lebanon, does not withdraw its forces from near the border with Israel. Hezbollah has also threatened to invade Israel.

But less violence in Gaza might also end up creating space for a de-escalation of hostilities in Lebanon. Hezbollah joined the fighting in October in solidarity with Hamas, and its leadership has indicated that it could wind down its campaign if the war in Gaza ebbs.

Monday’s meetings will focus on all three issues, with American officials seeking clarity on the Israeli government’s intentions with a possible cease-fire agreement and whether Israeli leaders are considering a new offensive against Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon, military action that Washington worries could drag the United States into a wider regional war.

Mr. Gallant is also scheduled to meet with Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III on Tuesday and with President Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, on Wednesday.

Early in the war, Mr. Gallant publicly outlined a three-phase battle plan for Gaza that included intense airstrikes against Hamas targets and infrastructure; a period of ground operations aimed at “eliminating pockets of resistance”; and a third phase that would create “a new security reality for the citizens of Israel.” He said over the weekend that his meetings in Washington would feature discussion of “the transition to ‘Phase C’ in Gaza.”

On Sunday, Mr. Netanyahu left ambiguity around how his government expects the war to end. In an interview with an Israeli television station, he said at one point that he was ready to agree to a temporary truce and the release of some of hostages in Gaza, then subsequently resume the war. That appeared to contradict an Israeli proposal — endorsed by Mr. Biden and the United Nations Security Council — for a phased deal that would release all the Israeli hostages there and usher in a permanent cease-fire.

Mr. Netanyahu also continued to rule out a proposal, pushed by the Biden administration, to hand over Gaza to the Palestinian Authority, a Western-backed administration that lost control of the enclave in 2007 and exercises limited rule in parts of the occupied West Bank.

One question is how a temporary truce or permanent cease-fire in Gaza might affect tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a powerful militia and Lebanese political faction backed by Iran.

The two conflicts are intertwined: Hezbollah began cross-border strikes into northern Israel in support of Hamas after Israel launched its offensive in Gaza in response to the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Analysts have said that a deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict is unlikely as long as the war in Gaza persists.

Escalating fire across the Israel-Lebanon border in recent weeks has been stoking fears that the fighting could grow into all-out war. Over the weekend, the Israeli military said it had killed a militant in an airstrike deep inside Lebanese territory. Lebanese state media reported that the Israeli strike had hit a village about 25 miles from the border.

On Sunday, Mr. Gallant met in Washington with Amos Hochstein, a Biden adviser who has overseen previous talks between Israel and Lebanon. Mr. Hochstein had met with Mr. Netanyahu in Jerusalem less than a week earlier, as the Israeli military warned that Hezbollah’s cross-border strikes against Israel risked a wider confrontation.

Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on Sunday that an Israeli military offensive in Lebanon would risk an Iranian response, according to The Associated Press.

Hundreds of health care workers in Gaza have been killed by Israel’s pulverizing bombing campaign or been caught in the middle of ground combat between the Israeli military and Hamas, according to the ministry.

In an interview, Yousef Abu al-Rish, the deputy minister of the health ministry, said Mr. Jafarawi had relocated to a clinic in Gaza City months ago after an Israeli raid left Al-Shifa Hospital, his previous base of operations, in ruins.

Mr. Abu al-Rish, the most senior health ministry official in Gaza, said Mr. Jafarawi coordinated the transfer of wounded people from the field to hospitals, as well as between hospitals. He had been responsible for doing that work across Gaza, but after Israeli forces divided the enclave in half, he focused on the northern part of the territory.

Mr. Abu al-Rish said a replacement would be named, but predicted that the person would not have the same expertise and contacts.

On Monday, the Israeli military said the Air Force had killed Mr. Salah, the Hamas militant, in Gaza City. It said he was “part of a project to develop strategic weaponry for the Hamas terrorist organization.”

Israel has repeatedly accused Hamas of exploiting hospital grounds and other civilian infrastructure for military purposes. The militant group has denied the allegation, even though in November the Israeli military revealed a stone-and-concrete tunnel shaft below Al-Shifa. At the time, the health ministry said the military’s raid put the hospital out of service.