Israel’s Bid to End the Iranian Nuclear Threat

OPINION — In the early hours of June 13, Israel launched a series of airstrikes, codenamed Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and senior civil-military leaders. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clarified that the operational objective of this campaign seeks to degrade and destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) declassified intelligence revealing Iran’s covert plan to accelerate uranium enrichment that would enable Iran to reach weapons-grade uranium in a “short period of time.” The IDF’s assertion also supports the recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolution confirming Iran’s noncompliance with nonproliferation obligations and engaging in “undeclared” nuclear activities. Iran has simultaneously continued to reject U.S. proposals and threatened to expand its nuclear program during negotiations. Iran’s non-compliance with the IAEA and its constant threats of increasing uranium enrichment indicate that the regime was negotiating in bad faith.

Operational Effects

The Israeli air campaign is designed to impose significant costs on Iran’s military capabilities and will temporarily halt Iranian enrichment activities. Strikes hit nuclear targets in Natanz, Esfahan, and Fordow, including enrichment facilities, power grids, and uranium production sites. Commercial satellite imagery confirms significant damage, though the IAEA reported no radiation spikes on June 13. This suggests that the IDF, given the current tempo of operations, has not yet destroyed the centrifuges and fuel conversion facilities. Still, Israeli officials maintain that the IDF will continue to strike these facilities. However, it is unclear at this time of writing what operational effect these airstrikes can achieve to fully dismantle Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

The ongoing Israeli campaign has brought the sophistication and reach of the Israeli intelligence apparatus once again to the public view. Before launching the first wave of missiles on Iranian targets, Israel launched one-way attack drones from a drone unit that it covertly assembled near Tehran. These drones struck Iranian ballistic missile launchers and components of the Iranian air defense system, thus degrading Iran’s counter-assault capabilities and rendering Iranian air defense ineffective.

The Iranian military has been preparing for a potential U.S. or Israeli airstrike over the past weeks. Senior Iranian military commanders were actively inspecting air defense zones, radar sites, and airbases across Iran to review military preparedness and defensive measures in anticipation of U.S. or Israeli strikes. Iran also repositioned some of its missile launchers and air defense components, including Russian-made S-300 systems, near Natanz and Fordow nuclear sites. While these defensive measures failed to decisively intercept Israeli missiles, the air assault did not come as a surprise to the Iranian regime. What has come across as a total shock to the Khamenei regime is the parallel decapitation campaign of several senior Iranian commanders and key nuclear scientists. The precision with which Israel was able to eliminate several top brass military officials, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami and the Armed Forces General Staff Mohammad Bagheri, within 12 hours of launching Operation Rising Lion is truly extraordinary. A Hezbollah-like decapitation campaign of Iranian commanders indicates that the operation must have been supported by a network of robust human and signals intelligence. This is yet another feather in Mossad’s cap that has demonstrated its successful infiltration of Iran’s senior leadership circles.

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Iranian Command and Control at the Brink

Israeli air assault has temporarily disrupted Iranian command and control, as evident from Iran’s disorganized counterattack. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei swiftly appointed replacements for slain commanders, particularly for the Armed Forces General Staff and the IRGC Commander positions. Such positions are essential to restore operational coordination for a counterattack on Israel. Six hours after Israel’s strikes, Iran launched around 100 drones likely to suppress Israeli integrated air defense grids, followed by several waves of ballistic missiles. While the majority of Iranian projectiles were intercepted, some Iranian missiles impacted Israel and caused dozens of casualties in central and southern Israel. Iranian missiles also damaged several high-rise buildings in Tel Aviv. The impact sites in Israel clearly indicate that the projectiles were destined towards civilian centers, not military positions.

The military utility of Iranian counter assault is negligible, as it failed to degrade Israeli military capabilities by any degree. The October 2024 air assault on Israel caused some damage to IDF airbases in Tel Nof and Negev, and other military sites in central Israel. The October 2024 strikes were a result of a preserved command and control structure and effective coordination among different branches of the Iranian armed forces. The ongoing Iranian counterattack campaign until now has largely aimed at densely populated civilian areas, suggesting that Iran’s campaign was not a result of well-informed and coordinated military planning. The lack of military focus in the Iranian counter assault raises serious questions on the Iranian military’s command and control structure. A weakened command structure will likely fail to effectively defend Iran against Israeli strikes and conduct further offensive operations.

Forcing Negotiations with Predetermined Outcomes

It is still too early to fully evaluate the impact of Israeli military operations in Iran or to predict their effect on Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Israel has, however, established complete air superiority over Iran after destroying the bulk of Iranian air defense systems. This leaves Iranian military assets and nuclear sites more vulnerable to Israeli attacks than ever before. Israeli airstrikes have also destroyed Iranian missile launchers and silos, severely undermining Iran’s ability to respond decisively. The continued Israeli assault thus positions Iran at a significant operational disadvantage.

Iran faces a decisive defeat due to two reasons: First, with the current pace of Israeli military operations, Iran risks losing a significant proportion of its remaining conventional military capabilities. The Iranian military reportedly used a fewer number of stand-off weapons than originally planned in its retaliation because Israeli airstrikes rendered several airbases inoperable, complicating resource movement in a time-sensitive environment. Iran continues to lose its air and ground assets and is rapidly depleting its ballistic missile stockpile. Secondly, the killing of several senior Iranian civilian and military leaders, including individuals close to Ali Khamenei, complicates crisis management and diplomacy. A leadership crisis in Iran’s senior-most civil-military ranks will disrupt operational planning at all levels, making interagency coordination extremely difficult.

The operational success of Rising Lion could very likely lead to a strategic victory if the Iranian regime can be forced to the negotiating table with a predetermined outcome—one that would compel Iran to fully dismantle its nuclear weapons program and allow international watchdogs to take over Iranian nuclear facilities. The White House maintains that it will not stop Israel but continues to signal that Iran must give up on its nuclear ambitions for hostilities to stop. Iran’s rejection of further nuclear talks amid countering Israeli assault and its isolation, with regional proxies hesitant to engage, has severely weakened Tehran’s position. Continued Israeli strikes can therefore force Iran to negotiate denuclearization. Iran must use the limited time and resources at its disposal to accept the rising demands for denuclearization and allow international watchdogs to confiscate and deal with its current uranium stockpile.

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