From Guns for Hire to Military Doctrine: Russia’s Institutionalization of Influence in Africa

“Since 2017, Russia’s method of irregular warfare (IW) and its operations in Africa have changed the security landscape. By sending proxies, like Wagner and its successor, the Africa Corps, Moscow has combined military support, economic exploitation, and political influence to gain a foothold in the Sahel, North Africa, and beyond. This reflects a deliberate approach designed to exploit security gaps, counter Western influence, and secure critical resources.”

“For U.S. Africa Command (USAFRICOM), which provides the overarching strategic direction for U.S. forces in the region, Russia’s expanding role represents a significant threat to regional stability. Coups are occurring rapidly, and Western forces are pulling back, which is changing the nature of interactions between African juntas and Russian forces amid a shifting threat environment…Understanding Russia’s changing hybrid model is crucial for operational- level SOF and planning that supports AFRICOM’s strategic goals.”

“A thorough understanding of the operational logic associated with the Russian irregular model of power projection in Africa provides SOF operators, planners, and policymakers with practical findings tailored to SOF communities. A clear understanding of Russian operational methods in Africa enables key decision-makers to anticipate and prepare for the cycle of adaptation by Moscow…The information gained from understanding Russian irregular operations in Africa will assist all interagency representatives in developing unified and synchronized guidance as well as risk mitigation plans for effective competition management across Africa’s most contested spaces.”