Deterrence Won’t Fail in the Taiwan Strait — It Will Be Bypassed

On Dec. 29, 2025, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported one of the most intense single-day episodes of Chinese military activity in recent years. Over 100 Chinese aircraft were detected operating around the island, not merely signaling but actively compressing Taiwan’s defensive space. Of these, 90 aircraft crossed the median line, effectively erasing a boundary that had kept the peace for decades. More ominously, these air assets were joined by 13 Chinese warships and, crucially, 14 official ships from the China Coast Guard and Maritime Safety Administration.The escalation did not stop at encirclement. On Dec. 30, the Chinese military fired 27 rockets from Fujian,

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