Can the West Really Stop Russia’s War in Ukraine? A View from the Frontlines.

EXPERT Q&A — Russia has not slowed its assaults on Ukraine, ceaselessly raining missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities while pushing forward – albeit slowly – on the frontlines. Former Senior CIA Officer Glenn Corn got a firsthand account of how Ukraine is faring under fire, telling The Cipher Brief about the resilience of the Ukrainians, the sabre-rattling from Russia aimed at dissuading Western support, and what Kyiv is seeking from the U.S. and Europe.

Cipher Brief CEO and Publisher Suzanne Kelly spoke with Corn from Ukraine, for an on-the-ground picture of the challenges, opportunities and immediate actions needed to counter Russia’s invasion. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

The Cipher Brief: Russia’s attacks have really been intensifying against Ukrainian cities. You’ve witnessed that. What has this latest barrage been like from your perspective on the ground?

Corn: We were woken up in the morning about 6:00 AM by strikes inside of Kyiv by the Russians, including one strike which damaged the Council of Ministers building downtown. I think the Russians are claiming that was not deliberate, which is interesting. It tells me something when the Russians are very quick to say that they were not behind something, because that tells me they’re worried about the response.

The Cipher Brief: We’ve seen heavy missile attacks in civilian areas before, so this is not entirely new. But it has been stepped up. It was a bit like this when we were there with you a few months ago. Is it wearing on people differently now?

Corn: The Ukrainians are incredibly resilient, and honestly, I’m not seeing that they’re cowered by these attacks. I’m sure people are upset, and I think just days ago, the Russians hit a group of pensioners that were at a post office to get their pension checks and killed a group of civilians – 20-plus. People respond to that. They’re angry about that. The main thing I’m hearing and seeing though is that they’re waiting for the Western response. What is the West going to do? We’ve given Putin a chance to negotiate a ceasefire, a way out of this disastrous war, and he’s not taking it. In fact, he’s doubling down and people here are asking, “When is the West, including the United States, or maybe led by the United States, going to respond?” And I think many Americans are probably asking the same question.

The Cipher Brief: That’s been a question for a long time. When the West steps up and for example, says it will provide more long-range missiles to Ukraine – the response from Moscow is threats and saber-rattling. This saber-rattling deterred the Biden administration from taking a more aggressive approach to supporting Ukraine. What do you think needs to happen now, for the West to provide effective deterrence against President Putin?

Corn: Let’s just go back in history, to 2022. The Russians drew several red lines: Finland joining NATO was a red line, they said they were going to respond against the West. They didn’t do that. If we gave the Ukrainians ATACMS, F-16s, Moscow said that could result in a nuclear response. They didn’t do that.

I think there are a lot of threats that are coming from the Kremlin. It’s easy for me to say, of course, because I’m not sitting in the White House, but I think that those threats are designed to deter us from making decisions or taking action..

If we talk about the deep strike capability, the Ukrainians are doing that on their own. My personal view, based on some of the things we’ve heard from the Ukrainians we’ve spoken with, is that they don’t need that as much as they need a mid-strike capability, because the information that we heard is that the Russians are preparing for another large-scale offensive in the next couple of weeks, maybe even less than a week. And the Ukrainians are going to have to be able to strike the logistics points, the collection points for Russian troops if the Russians try and mass forces along the front to strike at any particular part of the front lines.

And we all know the Ukrainians are stretched personnel wise. So, having that capability would be very valuable. But obviously that’s a strategic decision. My own view is that we should give the Ukrainians the weapons they need and they should be able to use them as they need to defend themselves and to stop this Russian onslaught. And if that means striking a Shahed factory deep inside of Russia, or a factory where they’re producing these Kinzhal missiles, we should let them do it. And I don’t think that Russia is going launch a nuclear war over that.

The Cipher Brief: Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recently accused Finland of laying the groundwork for a NATO attack on Russia – right in the midst of a Russian drone incursion into Poland. Russia began a troop build up along its border with Ukraine in 2021, saying, “There’s nothing to see here, there’s nothing to see here.” And then all of a sudden, Russia declared Ukraine a threat and invaded with ground troops and paratroopers dropping into Kyiv. Are you concerned about the Russian rhetoric now around Finland and Russian drone incursions into other neighboring countries?

Corn: If we go back to before the Second World War, Stalin used provocation to start a war with Finland, to invade Finland. They had Vladimir Zhirinovsky in the nineties through the mid-2000s, who was used to scare the West. Then they had Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was used, in my opinion, as an example of who could come to power if Putin were to lose power. Back in the nineties, people worried about who would follow if Boris Yeltsin lost power, you could have Zhirinovsky and that would have been a disaster for the West. So, I think Medvedev is being used to some degree for propaganda and deterrence purposes. I don’t think what he says carries much weight.

I’m pretty positive that Finland is not preparing to invade, or NATO is not preparing to invade Russia across the Finnish border. I think that’s all hyperbole. It’s designed to make excuses for some of the things they’re doing and maybe to rally support inside of Russia for a cause which, my guess is, doesn’t have as much popular support as the Russian regime would like. Especially as Russia’s economic situation continues to worsen, which it is doing.

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The Cipher Brief:You briefed President Trump on the threat from Russia during his first term in office. You were still working at the CIA at the time, but you’ve talked to him about Russia in the past. If you were briefing the president today after your latest trip to Ukraine, what would be in that brief?

Corn: That the Ukrainians are ready for a deal. It’s not the Ukrainians that are the problem. Putin is the problem. Putin is pushing, as a bully would do. They’re trying to bully their way to a settlement that they want, which is in favor of Moscow, and it’s time for the United States to stand up to Russia. In my experience, if we do that, the Russians will be willing to negotiate in a more sincere manner, but they need to see force on the other side, and we should not let them deter us with their threats, their saber-rattling, Medvedev’s comments. I think if you look at past action and response, that tells you a lot. And we should look at that and learn from that.

The Cipher Brief: Besides a more severe package of sanctions being prepared in the Senate right now, what other things could be included in a show of force to Putin that you feel like might actually make a difference?

Corn: Secondary sanctions, yes, I like what the president’s saying to the Europeans. They need to take a step, too. They need to show that they have skin in the game. And enough with the excuses that they’re relying on Russian oil and gas. They need to make changes. They’ve got to do that, because we’re at the point now where we all need to do something and it’s going to be painful for everybody.

The additional provision of weapons systems, including air defense systems, are critically needed. We talked about long-range weapon systems. We should give them the ability to use those systems the way that they need to be used, and let the commanders decide how they want to use them.

Some of the things we’re doing elsewhere right now, make sense to me. For example, what we’re doing in the Caribbean and the message we’re sending to Venezuela, we shouldn’t forget that is a Russian ally and a People’s Republic of China ally, and so we should be putting pressure on Maduro. We should be putting pressure on any Russian ally, in my opinion, around the world.

And I’ve been saying this for two plus years now, that we should be showing the Russians that – just like what Ronald Reagan did with his strategy during the Cold War – we are going to challenge them wherever they challenge us. And we’re going to make them have to decide where they’re going to spend their very, very limited — and I have to stress that — their limited funds.

They have economic problems. We can exasperate that. And it’s unfortunate that we would have to do that, but we should do that, because the Russians are not only challenging the Ukrainians now, they’re doing things like threatening the life of European officials when they’re in the air.

Russian drones are violating Polish airspace. There’s a whole list of things they’re doing which is very aggressive, and there needs to be a strong response to those things. We need to make Russia understand that they will pay a price, there will be a significant consequence if they cross a line, and they seem to be crossing the line, so now it’s time to show them the consequences.

And the last thing I’ll say is what I wrote an article with you on: I think the president needs to start messaging the Russian people directly. We, the U.S. government, need to message them directly. The president has given their leader a chance for peace, and he’s not taking it. He should be held accountable by the people of Russia for whatever economic pain they’re feeling, and for whatever consequences come from policies that we’re going to have to make to punish Moscow for its continued aggression against its neighbors, not just Ukraine, but others like Georgia and Moldova, too.

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