Bitcoin Pattern Suggests 2026 Is Likely “A Consolidation Year,” Says VanEck 2026 Predictions Report

Bitcoin has clearly endured a challenging 2025. It fell short of the bullish expectations that dominated the market sentiment at the same time last year. However, the world’s leading asset management firm, VanEck, issued a rather optimistic forecast for 2026.

Is there a case for a 2026 comeback? According to VanEck Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, “Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, which tends to peak in the immediate post-election window, remains intact following the early October 2025 high. That pattern suggests 2026 is more likely a consolidation year than a melt-up or a collapse.”

Underperforming consistently compared to other asset classes, Bitcoin is at $87,072 today, 24 December 2025. BTC has spent most of December confined to a range between $85,000 and $90,000, a far cry from the six-figure predictions that many analysts had forecast for this period.

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“We have a model that assumes that by 2050 #Bitcoin becomes a reserve asset that is held by central banks at a 2% weight. In that model we arrive at a $3M price target for Bitcoin.”

– VanEck pic.twitter.com/PkxT35jRuw

— Bitcoin Teddy (@Bitcoin_Teddy) December 23, 2025

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“We have been buying,” Says VanEck

Despite the current weakness, David Schassler, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions at VanEck, expressed confidence in BTC potential for 2026. He argued that the present dislocation positions the cryptocurrency as a prime candidate for outperformance.

“Bitcoin is lagging the Nasdaq 100 Index by roughly 50% year-to-date, and that dislocation is setting it up to be a top performer in 2026,” Schassler said.

Today’s weakness reflects softer risk appetite and temporary liquidity pressures, not a broken thesis. As debasement ramps, liquidity returns, and Bitcoin historically responds sharply. We have been buying.

Furthermore, VanEck’s outlook for Bitcoin 2026 follows a three-lens framework

• Global liquidity is mixed: likely rate cuts provide support, but US liquidity is tightening somewhat because AI-driven capex fears have collided with a more fragile funding market and pushed credit spreads wider.
• Leverage in the crypto ecosystem has reset after several washouts.
• On-chain activity, while still soft, is beginning to improve.

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“Gold is one of the strongest major assets this year, and we expect that momentum to carry it to $5,000 in 2026”

Interestingly, VanEck’s prediction of the performance of gold is that it could reach $5000 per ounce in 2026. The analysts believe that Gold’s bullish trend will create genuine market volatility that ultimately benefits Bitcoin.

Central banks have been buying gold at record levels for three consecutive years as they diversify reserves and, in many cases, actively reduce reliance on the US dollar

Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, Gold and Precious Metals at VanEck pointed out that western investment demand—historically the key driver of major price moves—has finally turned higher. She also said that Gold ETF holdings remain well below prior peaks, suggesting substantial room for additional inflows.

A VanEck manager predicts a strong rebound in Bitcoin as gold prices reach $5,000 by 2026.

VanEck’s David Schassler forecasts significant rallies in both gold and Bitcoin as investor demand for hard assets rises.

“Bitcoin has lagged behind the Nasdaq 100 by about 50%… pic.twitter.com/tygq2mrAp4

— Juno (@Warrecsunn) December 23, 2025

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