Bitcoin macro indicator that predicted 2022 bottom flashes 'buy signal'

Key takeaways:

• Macro Chain Index issues first buy signal since 2022, hinting at a new Bitcoin bull run.

• RSI crossover on the MCI aligns with past cycle bottoms that preceded 500%+ BTC rallies.

• Bitcoin price recovers from $74K to $95K amid rising open interest and positive funding rates.

A key Bitcoin (BTC) indicator that accurately signaled the 2022 market bottom has just flashed another buy signal, suggesting the cryptocurrency may be entering a new bull phase.

Bitcoin metric hints at “absolute bottom”

Dubbed the Macro Chain Index (MCI), the indicator is a composite of several long-term on-chain and macroeconomic metrics.

It analyzes factors such as accumulation behavior, network activity, and supply trends, helping identify whether Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued relative to its historical cycle position.

The most important part of the current chart is the RSI (Relative Strength Index) of the MCI (purple). In April, the RSI crossed above its 52-week moving average (yellow), which has historically confirmed the start of Bitcoin bull runs.

This RSI crossover previously appeared in 2015 ahead of Bitcoin’s surge to $20,000, in 2019 before the run to $65,000, and in late 2022 just before BTC bottomed near $15,500.

If historical patterns hold, the April 2025 crossover means the beginning of a new bull run, particularly as several other indicators also point to Bitcoin breaking above its key psychological resistance at $100,000.

“Our Macro Chain Index fired a long signal, the first buy signal since 2022, when it successfully went long at the absolute bottom,” Alpha Extract, the creator of the Macro Chain Index, stressed further, adding:

“Considering that the fundamentals align and the market structure is gradually following, this is a significant call, imho.”

Related: Bitcoin price always rallies at least 50% after these two patterns emerge

Bitcoin dipped by as much as 32% after establishing a record high of nearly $110,000 in January, a sharp decline caused primarily by US President Donald Trump’s global trade war.

BTC formed a local low below $74,450 in early April, but has since recovered to around $95,650 amid signs that it is “decoupling” from an otherwise bearish US stock market.

Bitcoin open interest rises by $2.2 billion in April

Bitcoin’s recent price rebound is gaining strong support from futures markets, especially on Binance.

Between January and early April, open interest (OI) on the exchange dropped from $11.9 billion to $7.5 billion, marking a 36.9% decline and signaling reduced confidence and lower leverage during the market downturn. But the trend flipped in mid-April.

Over the past three weeks, traders have pushed open interest up by 29.3%, from $7.5 billion to $9.7 billion, aligning with Bitcoin’s price rise in spot markets.

This synchronized rise in price and open interest shows that traders are entering new long positions, not just closing shorts. It signals growing confidence in Bitcoin’s upside.

Funding rates have also stayed mostly positive, which means long-position holders are paying short sellers, a typical sign that the market expects higher prices.

The rising open interest and positive funding rates are showing renewed bullish momentum, adding weight to the argument that Bitcoin could continue climbing toward $100,000 in the coming days.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.