As experts studiously debate what the latest Israel-Iran fighting will lead to, including a possible Iranian collapse, one enduring but less understood reality goes mostly untreated: Iranians and Americans are more alike than they are different, and that likeness holds hope for a friendlier future. A new Iranian revolution would bring significant uncertainty and risk. But it would also bring to the fore Iranian ideals that, in many ways, are also very American.
A Palpable Likeness
A few years ago, while enjoying a relaxed dinner with a senior Iraqi officer, he proceeded to lecture me and a few other Americans on why he thought that America and Iran were destined to come together. He delivered a monologue about the similarities between the American and Iranian people, which I initially doubted but subsequently vetted with numerous Iran experts who largely agreed. His premise, which I now believe to be mostly accurate, boiled down to three commonalities between Americans and Iranians: we are imbued with a revolutionary spirit and national pride, we are unyielding entrepreneurs, and we are bureaucratic in our official decisionmaking, sometimes to a fault.
- Revolutionary Spirit – Americans love their revolution. We celebrate it regularly, and we beckon it in almost every national speech and theme. I don’t have to prove this to the Western reader because it’s ever-present. Nevertheless, polling consistently shows America as among the most, if not the most, “patriotic,” and our revolutionary zeal is at its center. For Iranians, their identity has been centered on revolution since 1979. That connection to the revolution has diminished, if not depleted, but the spirit of revolution as an ideal, even for those opposed to the current regime, is foundational. My dinner guest made this point clear: it’s not the 1979 revolution that has endured, but the underdog attitude that perseveres, inspiring Iranians to define their own destiny — a drive that makes Iranians and Americans so alike.
- Unyielding Entrepreneurship – America is the core of entrepreneurship in the world. Efforts to rank such traits list the US as second or third, and the US is second only to China in patents; however, the US has led global innovation for the last century. As for Iran, the country consistently punches above its weight in such categories. Indeed, Iranians, like Americans, take pride in their innovative prowess. Iran regularly ranks among the top performers for innovation in the Near East, and it outpaces the vast majority of its competition as a middle-income country. Experts on Iran are keen to observe that, absent Western sanctions, Iran has the potential to become a technology powerhouse. Indeed, the very reason Iran is under sanctions, its nuclear ambitions and advancement, is demonstrable of its technological know-how.
- Bureaucratic Decisionmaking – Although the shared proclivity for making official decisions in a bureaucratic fashion may not appear the most compelling category on the surface, it demonstrates a shared, ingrained respect for rigor and order. For all our revolutionary zeal, ironically, that zeal falls by the wayside in our approach to governing, which also has a long tradition in Iran. We appear different on the surface; the US is democratic, and Iran is theocratic, creating significant philosophical differences. However, both are bureaucratic in practice and structure. My dinner guest was adamant on this point, noting that, as an Iraqi caught between two rivals, he regularly endured our entrenched structural similarities.
An AI-generated comparison of Iranian and American government structures, albeit simplistic, highlights the regimented bureaucracy that, at best, characterizes both countries’ careful and considerate decisionmaking and, at worst, leads to sloth.Author-prompted AI-generated graphic
Commonalities Could Become Bridges
These similarities are more than just quaint observations; they are core characteristics that inspire a nervous hope that our two countries will come together. A primary Israeli objective is regime change, the fallout of which could be destructive and violent. If regime change were in the offing, Washington would do well to understand and anticipate how the US-Iranian similarities could quickly become affinities influencing any path forward. In this environment, Iranian outreach, diaspora pressure, and US ally assistance would emerge as critical vectors for US action.
- Iranian Outreach – A new revolution in Tehran would almost certainly spur greater outreach toward Washington. This may seem counterintuitive, given that Iranians have held unfavorable views of the US for years, but our similarities might serve as a counterforce. Indeed, even amid Iranian disdain for Americans, they express a strong desire to normalize relations and for democracy. Furthermore, Washington’s apparent effort to dissuade Israel from its military offensive may position the United States as a more approachable adversary. Washington would almost certainly be situated for some quick wins with the youth who would be at the center of any new movement. Not to be flippant, but soft power gestures, such as facilitating a concert by the locally popular Lionel Richie, are the type of normalization gestures that Washington should consider.
- Diaspora Pressure – The Iranian diaspora in the United States would be a source of information and pressure in Washington amid a new Iranian revolution. I have retold my dinner story to members of the diaspora, and they are the most fervent that it’s correct; on one occasion, it brought an Iranian-born American to tears as she insisted on its accuracy. The US is home to the largest Iranian population in the world after Iran itself; the census puts the numbers between 400,000 and 570,000, depending on ethnic mix. Further, that diaspora is politically engaged and informed. Washington would do well to measure the diaspora advice; on the one hand, they have the best interests of Iran in mind and are likely to return and hold posts of influence; on the other hand—and as we learned during the US invasion of Iraq—diaspora sources can lead with the hearts, understandably, and so relying on multiple sources of information in decisionmaking would be all the more critical.
- Ally Assistance – Like my Iraqi acquaintance, American allies are likely to desire and push for a US-Iran rapprochement in the face of a new Iranian revolution. Some allies are well-connected and more respected in Tehran and could serve as a springboard for Washington. Further, Iranian desires to normalize relations are less applicable to Israel, leaving Washington to play a cleanup role if it wants a renewed Iran to emerge as relatively friendly. The UK, which maintains an embassy in Tehran and appears eager to demonstrate its loyalty to the US, would likely be quick to offer assistance. France also has a diplomatic presence and probably would step up to encourage stability. The ever-ambitious Turkey, home to a large diaspora population and a strong Muslim affinity—Iran’s theocratic status will make religion something to navigate—would be an essential ally in the cause. Canada, which helped the US safely depart Tehran after its last revolution, has recently experienced tension with Iran, but it hosts the second-largest diaspora population after the US and would be a logical option for trilateral or multilateral engagement.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
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