AI predicts FIFA Club World Cup shock winner — It’s not Kylian Mbappe’s Real Madrid, Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami, or Erling Haaland’s Manchester City

With 32 of the globe’s most storied clubs vying for supremacy, anticipation is surging. Among them are teams stacked with superstars—Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi, and Erling Haaland will all feature—but none of their clubs has emerged as the clear favorite.

As the expanded 2025 FIFA Club World Cup kicks off, the soccer world turns its gaze toward the United States. With 32 of the globe’s most storied clubs vying for supremacy, anticipation is surging. Among them are teams stacked with superstars—Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi, and Erling Haaland will all feature—but none of their clubs has emerged as the clear favorite.

In a move that adds both excitement and controversy to the pre-tournament discourse, Opta’s artificial intelligence model has released its projections for the most likely winners. The results? Shocking to some, affirming to others.

Paris Saint-Germain, the reigning Champions League winners, have been dubbed the favorites to lift the Club World Cup trophy, with a 19% chance of emerging victorious.

“PSG arrives at a great moment. They’ve just won the Champions League for the first time with a resounding victory over Inter Milan (5-0),” the analysis notes.

This timing couldn’t be more perfect for Luis Enrique’s men. Riding high after their historic European triumph, the Parisian club enters the competition with confidence, depth, and star power. The AI model gives them a 91.6% probability of making it to the Round of 16 and a 75.4% chance of reaching the quarter-finals. With Ousmane Dembele and Desire Doue in top form, PSG is positioned to make history yet again.

Manchester City: Title holder and serious contender

Right behind them are Manchester City, the defending champions, with an 18% chance to go all the way. Despite a turbulent season—marked by elimination in the Champions League Round of 16 by Real Madrid, defeat in the FA Cup final, and a third-place Premier League finish—Pep Guardiola’s side remains a formidable force.

Their resilience and recruitment have kept them high in the rankings. Big-money signings like Tijjani Reijnders, Rayan Cherki, and Rayan Ait-Nouri have added quality, and Guardiola’s experience in this competition is unmatched. AI gives City a 97.2% chance of progressing from Group G, making them one of the safest bets to reach the final stages.

Bayern Munich and Inter among the challengers

In third place is Bayern Munich, with a 13% chance of winning. Now under Vincent Kompany, Bayern are aiming to return to the summit of world soccer. Having regained their domestic crown and featuring elite talent like Harry Kane, they are expected to top their group, which includes Benfica and Boca Juniors.

Close behind are Inter, with a 12% shot at the title. Though the team enters the tournament on the back of a brutal Champions League loss and managerial change, they remain a significant threat. AI gives them a 79% chance of topping Group E.

Real Madrid: New chapter under Xabi Alonso

While historically dominant, Real Madrid finds itself as only the fifth most likely team to win, with a 10% probability. The club is undergoing a transformation. Xabi Alonso has taken over as head coach, and new faces like Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dean Huijsen have joined an already loaded roster.

Madrid is expected to dominate Group H, with a 76.4% chance of advancing, but whether they can go all the way depends on how quickly their new unit gels. “The team has started working with the clear goal of winning the first world title under this new format,” according to the report.

Chelsea, with an 8% chance, is considered a dark horse. A favorable group draw that includes LAFC, Flamengo, and ES Tunis gives them a strong shot at advancing. Cole Palmer is tipped to be their breakout star.

Borussia Dortmund and Atletico Madrid sit at 5% each, while Juventus and Benfica trail with 4% and 3%, respectively. All four will need group-stage upsets to mount a serious challenge.

Messi’s Inter Miami and the long shots

Among the non-European clubs, Inter Miami generates perhaps the most buzz—largely due to Lionel Messi. The Argentine legend, who has scored five goals in five Club World Cup matches, is seen as a wildcard. A recent MLS performance—two goals and two assists in a 5-1 win—shows he’s still capable of magical nights.

Other hopefuls like Al-Hilal, coached by Simone Inzaghi, are tipped to be the best non-European bet to reach the knockouts, with a 50.5% chance.