Iran and the Gulf: Why Hedging Is No Longer Enough

During the recent protests in Iran, most Gulf states quietly but actively pushed back against calls in Washington for military strikes. Their judgment was simple: Escalation would almost certainly destabilize the region without producing meaningful political change inside Iran, while leaving Gulf cities, infrastructure, and populations directly exposed to retaliation. At the core of Gulf reluctance lies a fear of chaos rather than a preference for regime continuity. Policymakers worry about uncontrolled Iranian collapse, including state fragmentation, militia spillover, refugee movements, nuclear or radiation leaks, and severe disruptions to energy markets that would affect Gulf states. This position reflects a deeper

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