ASPI | An army of lawyers is advancing. Taiwan is the target

“An army of lawyers is advancing. Taiwan is the target,” published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, argues that Beijing has escalated its lawfare campaign against Taiwan from rhetorical threats to active enforcement designed to intimidate and deter.

The article discusses how detentions of Taiwanese nationals in mainland China surged in 2025 and how authorities now simulate criminal proceedings against Taiwanese figures beyond their jurisdiction. China uses politicized national security charges, extraterritorial claims, and public naming campaigns to chill democratic speech and constrain international engagement. Lawfare now functions as a central instrument of pressure in Beijing’s Taiwan strategy and requires coordinated diplomatic and legal responses.

New cases of Taiwanese nationals reported missing, detained for questioning, or subject to restrictions on personal freedom in mainland China, by month (January 2024–November 2025).

Rather than relying on blacklists or symbolic travel bans, Beijing publicly named a specific police organ, invoked criminal statutes, and portrayed legal process as already underway. The logical next step is to internationalize that process: seeking Interpol red notices, testing extradition arrangements, and pressuring third countries to treat Chinese domestic law as enforceable beyond China’s borders.

Total cases of Taiwanese nationals reported missing, detained for questioning, or subject to restrictions on personal freedom in Mainland China, 2024–25.

Lawfare is no longer a supporting domain of effort in Beijing’s Taiwan strategy; it is a central instrument of pressure. Recognizing and responding to this shift, through clearer diplomatic signaling, coordinated responses to transnational repression, and support for Taiwan’s legal resilience, will be essential to managing cross-strait stability in the years ahead.

Tim Boyle, a US Navy JAG Officer, provides a similar assessment in his SWJ article, “From Ambiguity to Flexibility: Reframing US Taiwan Policy,” arguing that Beijing drives cross-strait competition through sustained gray zone pressure that demands adaptable policy responses. Like ASPI’s analysis of China’s lawfare campaign against Taiwan, Boyle centers the problem on coercion that operates below the threshold of open conflict and targets democratic resilience. Together, the pieces frame lawfare as a core instrument of strategic intimidation and call for U.S. and partner actions that exploit legal and diplomatic leverage to sustain cross-strait stability.

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