The Coming War in America | National Institute for Public Policy

The Coming War in America, by Christopher Williams, National Institute for Public Policy, February 10, 2026

Introduction

Today America is under attack by adversary nations, terrorist groups, transnational criminal organizations, violent illegal immigrants, and radicalized or disgruntled U.S. citizens. News stories and official Government reports provide ample evidence of attacks on U.S. critical infrastructures, plots to assassinate current and former government officials, illicit penetrations of key U.S. government facilities including military bases, attacks on U.S. lawmakers, and more…America’s political leaders must resolve—on a bipartisan basis—to rapidly and comprehensively address the growing vulnerability of the homeland…This Information Series article briefly outlines four scenarios…hopefully they will help shine a light on the growing vulnerability of the U.S. homeland and reinforce the need for urgent remedial action.

Scenario 1: Adversary Attempts to Influence the Outcome of U.S. Elections Through a Campaign of Targeted Political Violence and Assassinations

Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) have brought increased violence, drug trafficking, extortion, human trafficking and smuggling, and illicit firearms to cities and towns across America. TCOs operating in the United States include the notorious MS-13 gang and Tren de Aragua. Mexican drug cartels such as the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel have a presence in almost every state…These and other TCOs could launch attacks on U.S. politicians and/or against polling places during upcoming national election cycles.

Attacks on U.S. politicians have risen sharply…The leader of the U.S. Capitol Police recently testified that “[t]he past year alone saw threats against Members [of Congress] increase to a staggering 9,400 in one year—more than double over the past ten years…assaults at U.S. election polling stations may occur in 2026 and 2028. Such actions could undermine voter confidence and lead to prolonged counting of votes, which would spawn accusations of an unfair election. They also could fan the flames of extremism and lead to calls for political retribution or additional acts of domestic violence.

Scenario 2: Adversary Operations to Disrupt the U.S. Economy, including Physical and Cyber Attacks on U.S. Critical Infrastructures

Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem recently testified that, “Terrorists and criminals with a variety of motivations continue to incite, and occasionally conduct, physical attacks against a range of targets. This past year, they mobilized against major commercial sites, government offices, transportation gateways, energy systems, and healthcare facilities. Critical infrastructure targets are often selected based on opportunistic factors, such as accessibility or the ability to wreak widespread havoc…. Foreign adversaries pose a strategic threat to public safety, and their objectives may include disrupting national morale, undermining public trust, or exploiting symbolic events for geopolitical messaging.”

Scenario 3: Adversary Attacks to Degrade or Delay U.S. Munitions Production and Distribution

This scenario involves adversary operations to impede the production and distribution of munitions and other critical war materiel via attacks on U.S. military bases, ports, railways, airfields and Defense Industrial Base (DIB) facilities…Drone incursions over
domestic military bases have been a growing problem for officials…Multiple U.S. Government agencies issued an advisory in November 2024 warning DIB contractors of possible efforts by foreign actors to conduct sabotage operations against their facilities.

Scenario 4: Adversary Attacks to Disrupt and Degrade U.S. National Decision Making and Strategic Military Operations

This scenario focuses on adversary operations to disrupt, degrade or destroy U.S. nuclear command, control and communications (NC3) and global missile defense battle management command control & communications (BMC3) systems in the context of Chinese aggression in Asia and/or Russian attacks against NATO…Chinese and/or Russian military objectives for such attacks could include hindering U.S. senior leaders’ ability to rapidly assess and respond in a timely manner to adversary attacks…America’s adversaries clearly understand the potential value of disrupting or degrading U.S. national decision making and strategic military operations through kinetic, cyber or other attacks on U.S. missile defense BMC3 and nuclear C3 systems and processes…If a nuclear-armed enemy perceives the command structure to be vulnerable, it may consider attempting a nuclear decapitation strike.

Conclusion

War is coming to America. Indeed, it is here now/today. This intensifying war will include tools and methods such as cyber attacks, drone strikes, terrorism, assassinations, sabotage, missile strikes, and more. The United States must urgently fashion and implement the policies, strategies, plans, programs, and operations needed in order to effectively counter such escalating threats. Nothing less than America’s survival is at stake.

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