Why Optimism for a Cease-Fire in Gaza Is Rising

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The pace of peace talks has picked up, pushed by multiple factors, including wars in Lebanon and Syria that have seriously weakened Hamas’s allies, and election victory of Donald J. Trump.

Hamas said on Tuesday that “serious and positive talks” were taking place to reach a deal with Israel to finally end the war in Gaza and free the remaining hostages held there.

Officials from countries involved in the talks say both sides might be nearing a truce in the war that began with Hamas’s attacks on Oct. 7 last year. It would be the first pause in the fighting since November 2023 when Israel and Hamas agreed to a weeklong cease-fire that gave Gazans a brief reprieve and freed 105 hostages.

But months of negotiations have seen hopes rise repeatedly, only to be dashed days later by a fresh impasse.

Here’s what we know so far.

What’s on the table?

In a change from previous negotiations, both sides have generally refrained from leaking the details of the talks to the media. Some analysts said they believed the blackout indicated that Israel and Hamas were more serious about an accord this time around.

According to officials familiar with the talks, mediators have floated a cease-fire beginning with a 60-day truce. During this phase, Hamas would release some of the 100 or so hostages still held in Gaza — some of them dead — in exchange for Palestinians jailed in Israel.

Image

At the so-called hostages square in Tel-Aviv, on the first anniversary of the conflict.Credit…Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times

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