Will Anything Stop Iran’s Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons?

OPINION — The weekend bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites in Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow surprised the leadership in Tehran. It shouldn’t have, given Iran’s cavalier behavior and their initial dismissive response to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) censure of Iran for “not complying with nonproliferation obligations” and Tehran’s response that ‘Iran would launch a new enrichment center in a secure location and replace the first generation of machines with more modern equipment.”

Israel’s response was quick and deadly: bombing the three principal Iranian nuclear sites and killing leaders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The speed and accuracy of the U.S. and Israeli attacks obviously surprised Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Perhaps Mr. Khamenei thought he had more time. He was wrong. Mr. Khamenei may have thought Iran’s 2023 membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2023, and the March 2025 joint military exercise with Russia and China may have tempered Israel’s reaction to Iran’s flaunting of Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty obligations. Or perhaps they thought the January 2025 Iran-Russia Strategic Cooperation Agreement would have provided some cover. Or that Iran’s close relationship with China, certainly since the 2021 China-Iran twenty-five-year strategic agreement on energy and geopolitical issues, would have helped them. But this didn’t happen.

What Iran got were mere statements of support.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is now in Moscow meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to plead for Russia’s support. Mr. Putin has already said that “There was no justification for the U.S. bombing of Iran and that Moscow was trying to help the Iranian people.” China’s response to the U.S. bombing was equally predictable, “China strongly condemns the U.S. attacks on Iran and bombing their nuclear facilities … calling for an immediate cease fire.”

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Russia is occupied with the war of aggression in Ukraine and the massive casualties and economic devastation it has created. China has severe economic issues that must be addressed, in addition to negotiations with the U.S. on tariffs. Russia relies on Iran for drones and other military support for the war in Ukraine while China is Iran’s largest trading partner and importer of Iranian oil.

Although not a member of the SCO, North Korea continues to have a close relationship with Iran. Indeed, North Korea provided Iran extensive assistance with its liquid-fuel ballistic missile fleet; several Scud short-range models and the No Dong medium-range models (Shahab-3) are based on North Korean technology; and reportedly, North Korea is helping Iran with its Intermediate-range and long-range ballistic missile programs.

There is unconfirmed media reporting that North Korea may be providing nuclear assistance to Iran and a Congressional Research Service report (which cited Jane’s Defense Weekly) on North Korea constructing underground nuclear facilities for Iran.

North Korea could be the outlier in the current Israel-Iran conflict. Their relationship with Iran goes back decades, and much of it dealt with providing Iran with ballistic missiles and conventional weaponry for its war with Iraq. Many of these transactions were for money, something North Korea continues to pursue, either through the sale of conventional weapons or missiles or from its extensive illicit activities program: counterfeiting cigarettes and pharmaceuticals, or its sophisticated cyber theft program, making billions of dollars for the leadership in Pyongyang.

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North Korea also has nuclear weapons and an active fissile material program to produce these nuclear weapons. Iran could seek North Korea’s assistance with the provision of one or more nuclear weapons or fissile material for a dirty bomb.

The Iran-North Korea relationship goes back decades, with North Korea providing Iran with unique military capabilities. But North Korea has been told, and we must continue to tell their leader, Kim Jong-Un, that the sale of nuclear weapons or fissile material for a dirty bomb to Iran – or any other rogue state or terrorist organization — is a red line that must never be crossed. If crossed, the consequences would be intolerable.

Closely monitoring North Korea’s interaction with Iran is important, especially now.

This also may be the time to reach out to Mr. Kim to resume a dialogue with North Korea, something that hasn’t happened since the failed February 2019 Hanoi Summit and President Trump’s brief meeting with Mr. Kim at the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in June 2019.

With the new Lee Jae-Myung government in South Korea, and recent confidence building gestures between the two Koreas, this may be an opportune time to reach out to Mr. Kim to reengage.

In the final analysis, Iran may continue to pursue a nuclear weapons capability. In the interim, Iran, a state sponsor of terrorism, may continue to attack U.S. and Israeli military personnel and civilians, working with the IRGC and their proxies. We should be ready.

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